Michael Saylor’s Strategy Is Now Underwater on Bitcoin. Is The Dam Breaking Open?

Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy, while innovative, carries inherent risks tied to price fluctuations, as seen with the recent plunge below $75,000, inflicting $900 million in unrealized losses. But true financial ruin—potentially forcing asset sales or bankruptcy—would likely not emerge until Bitcoin falls to $25,000 or below. At that level, the value of Strategy’s holdings would drop to around $17.8 billion, potentially falling short of covering its outstanding debt obligations, which include convertible notes totaling several billion dollars maturing in coming years.

This “point of no return” could trigger margin calls, liquidity crunches, or covenant breaches, especially given the company’s reliance on equity raises and high-interest preferred stock dividends—recently hiked to 11.25%—to fund further purchases.

Analysts are split on Bitcoin’s trajectory. Most forecast a mid-$70,000 stabilization in early 2026, citing potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional inflows as supportive factors. For instance, projections from sources like Changelly suggest an average of $134,000 by year-end, with highs still predicted up to $153,000 amid regulatory clarity.

However, a growing chorus of bearish voices warns of steeper declines to $30,000 or lower, driven by macroeconomic headwinds like hawkish Fed policies, geopolitical tensions, and reduced momentum from retail and ETF buyers. Crypto analyst Ben Cowen has even floated scenarios of a prolonged bear phase into summer 2026, potentially testing $10,000-$20,000 lows if correlations with equities intensify.

Such a plunge would exacerbate Strategy’s woes, slowing its ability to raise capital at premiums and straining cash flows from dividends and operations. While the company maintains no immediate forced selling risk—thanks to unencumbered BTC and cash reserves—the leverage amplifies its downside. If BTC holds above $70,000, Strategy could weather the storm, but below $50,000 and dilution from share sales becomes inevitable, eroding shareholder value.

Consensus analyst ratings for MSTR remain bullish, with a “Strong Buy” overall from Barchart data. Coverage includes 16 analysts, breaking down to 13 “Strong Buys,” one “Moderate Buy,” two “Holds,” and zero sells, reflecting strong confidence in its Bitcoin treasury play despite recent volatility. This rating has held fairly steady as a “Strong Buy” over the past three months, with no notable downward shifts in consensus opinion amid the crypto winter — though some have trimmed targets slightly to account for near-term pressure.

Its mean target of $464.36 represents a potential upside of 211% from the current share price around $146. This implies significant recovery potential if Bitcoin rebounds, positioning MSTR as a leveraged bet on crypto’s resurgence.

On the date of publication, Rich Duprey did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com